Berg is proposed as a copper mine, so the case for it rests on world copper demand. This page sets out what agencies measure and forecast for copper use, mine supply and recycling, and places Berg's output on that scale.
This drawing shows where the world's copper came from in 2025 and where it went. Green bands are scrap.
In this grid, each square is one year of Berg's copper. All the squares together make one year of the world's mine output.
Our assessment. Berg would produce about 80,000 tonnes of copper a year. That is about 0.3% of what the world's mines produced in 2025. Berg would be one of many mines needed to meet forecast demand, not a decisive source. Source: our arithmetic from PFS, p. 20 and ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 10.
For the full account, with every figure and source, choose Informed.
| Mt, kt | Million tonnes (109 kg) and thousand tonnes (106 kg) of contained copper. One tonne is 1,000 kg. |
| Refined copper | Copper refined to industrial purity, chiefly as cathode of about 99.99% Cu. Refined use is the refined copper consumed to make semi-manufactures. ICSG p. 8. |
| SX-EW | Solvent extraction and electrowinning. Copper is leached from ore into solution, concentrated by solvent extraction and deposited as cathode by electrolysis, without smelting. It gave 18% of refined output in 2025. ICSG pp. 8, 27. |
| Secondary refining | Refining of copper recovered from scrap, residues and other recycled material into refined copper. ICSG p. 8. |
| Direct-melt scrap | Clean, high-grade scrap remelted by semi-fabricators without smelting or electrolytic refining. ICSG p. 8. |
| Apparent usage | Production plus imports minus exports plus beginning stocks minus ending stocks. ICSG reports refined copper usage on this basis. ICSG pp. 8, 41. |
| New scrap, old scrap | New scrap is production waste from semi-manufacturing and fabrication; old scrap comes from obsolete, end-of-life products. ICSG p. 15. |
| Total copper use, U | Refined copper use plus direct-melt scrap. ICSG p. 45. |
| RIR | Recycling Input Rate: share of total copper use supplied by recycled inputs (secondary refined copper and direct-melt scrap). ICSG p. 59. |
| EOL-RR | End-of-life recycling rate: share of copper in discarded products that is actually recycled. It differs from RIR, which looks at inputs to use. UNEP 2011, p. 9; ICSG p. 58. |
| OSR | Old scrap ratio: share of old scrap in the total scrap flow. UNEP 2011, pp. 9, 17. |
| CR, PR | End-of-life collection rate (share of copper in discards that is collected) and processing rate (share of collected copper that is recovered). ICSG p. 61. |
| STEPS, APS, NZE | IEA scenarios: Stated Policies (base case), Announced Pledges, and Net Zero Emissions by 2050. IEA p. 14. |
| Base case, high production case | IEA mine supply cases. Base: existing assets, projects under construction and projects with permits, financing or offtake secured. High production: base plus projects at an advanced stage still seeking financing or permits. IEA p. 15. |
| CAGR | Compound annual growth rate, (xend / xstart)1/n − 1 over n years. |
| Implied deficit, D | IEA's shortfall of mined supply S against primary supply requirement R, where R is total demand net of secondary supply, allowing for refining losses. "Implied" because prices would rise and curtail demand. IEA pp. 90, 107. |
| Ore grade | Copper content of ore as a share of its mass. Lower grade means more rock mined and processed for each tonne of copper. ICSG p. 21. |
| In-use stock | Copper held in buildings, networks, vehicles and products still in service. It returns as old scrap only at end of life. ICSG pp. 58, 59. |
| ICSG, IEA, ICA, PFS | International Copper Study Group; International Energy Agency; International Copper Association; Pre-Feasibility Study. |
World use of refined copper nearly doubled between 2000 and 2025. Agencies expect it to keep rising with electric grids, electric vehicles and data centres, while output from existing and planned mines falls short. Recycled copper already supplies about a third of all copper used, and that share has held steady for twenty years, because copper stays in buildings and grids for decades before it returns as scrap. Berg would add about a third of one per cent to world mine output.
This level restates each section for analysts and engineers. It reaches the same findings as Informed and adds series definitions, scenario assumptions, method equations, recycling indicators and conflicts between sources. Quantities are tonnes of contained copper (Cu); 2025 values from ICSG are preliminary.
| Quantity | Value | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refined copper usage, 2025 | 28,200 kt | Apparent usage by semi-fabricators | ICSG p. 63 |
| Total copper use U, 2025 | 34.6 Mt | Refined usage plus direct-melt scrap | ICSG p. 45 |
| Recycling input and RIR, 2025 | 11.8 Mt; 34.0% | Secondary refined plus direct-melt, over U | ICSG pp. 58, 60 |
| IEA refined demand, 2040 | 34,137 kt (STEPS) | Excludes direct use of scrap | IEA p. 293 |
| Implied primary deficit D, 2035 | 0.30 (STEPS, base case) | Mined supply against primary supply requirement | IEA pp. 107, 110 |
| Greenfield lead time | typically 17 years | Discovery to production | IEA p. 110 |
| Berg mean output q | 79 kt per year | 0.34% of 2025 mine output (derived) | PFS; ICSG p. 10 |
World use of refined copper was 15.1 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 28.2 Mt in 2025, a rise of about 86%. Counting scrap that fabricators melt directly, total copper use rose from 21.7 Mt in 2005 to 34.6 Mt in 2025. China accounts for "around 59%" of refined use. Per person, world use rose from about 1.2 kg in 1950 to 3.4 kg in 2025. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 10, 43, 45, 63.
ICSG publishes two use series. Refined copper usage is refined copper consumed in making semi-manufactures, computed as apparent usage. Total copper use adds scrap melted directly by semi-fabricators; scrap that passes through smelting and refining is already inside refined usage and is not counted twice. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 8, 45.
Uref = Pref + M − X + Kbegin − Kend U = Uref + Sdm
Here Pref is refined production, M and X are imports and exports, K is refined stocks held by exchanges, producers, consumers, governments and merchants, and Sdm is direct-melt scrap. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 8, 45.
| Year | Mine production | Refined production | Refined usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 13,199 kt | 14,793 kt | 15,122 kt |
| 2024 | 22,955 kt | 27,414 kt | 27,420 kt |
| 2025, preliminary | 23,201 kt | 28,656 kt | 28,200 kt |
Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, annex "World Copper Statistics, 1960-2025", p. 63.
Refined usage grows by a factor of 28,200 / 15,122 = 1.86 from 2000 to 2025, a CAGR of 2.5% (our arithmetic); ICSG gives a CAGR of 3.3% from 1900. Total use grows from 21.7 Mt in 2005 to 34.6 Mt in 2025, a CAGR of 2.4%. Direct-melt scrap is 34.6 − 28.2 ≈ 6.4 Mt, or 18.5% of U, which matches ICSG's "almost one-fifth of total usage". China takes "around 59%" of refined usage in 2025; IEA puts China at "almost 60%" in 2024. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 10, 41, 45, 63; IEA Outlook 2025, p. 108.
Per-capita usage rises from about 1.2 kg in 1950 to 3.4 kg in 2025. ICSG defines it as refined copper used by the semis industry divided by population, and warns that it is not the copper in finished products consumed by each person. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 43.
Series disagree at the margin. ICSG records 27,420 kt of refined usage in 2024, while IEA records 26,717 kt of refined demand, a gap of 703 kt or 2.6% (our arithmetic). Both exclude direct-melt scrap; neither source reconciles the two, and we assess the gap as one of data vintage and accounting. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 63; IEA Outlook 2025, p. 293.
Building construction takes the largest share of copper (25% in 2025), followed by consumer and general products, cooling and electronics (22%), power and telecommunications infrastructure (18%), transport (15%), industrial equipment (11%) and other uses (9%). Nearly two-thirds of copper is first made into wire. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 46, citing the International Wrought Copper Council.
First use is the conversion of refined copper and direct-melt scrap into semi-fabricated products; end use is the sector that buys the finished goods. In 2025 first use splits into wire 63%, tube 12%, plate, sheet and strip 11%, rods, bars and sections 9%, and foil 5%. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 46, citing the International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC).
| End use (IWCC categories) | World 2025, ICSG | World 2024, NRCan |
|---|---|---|
| Building construction | 25% | 26% |
| Consumer and general products, cooling, electronic | 22% | 23% |
| Infrastructure (power and telecom) | 18% | 17% |
| Transport | 15% | 13% |
| Industrial equipment | 11% | 12% |
| Other | 9% | 9% |
USGS reports a United States split on Copper Development Association categories (building construction 42%, electrical and electronic products 23%, transportation equipment 18%, consumer and general products 10%, industrial machinery 7%). Its categories and geography differ, so its shares do not mix with the world IWCC series. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 46; NRCan, Copper facts; USGS 2026, p. 1.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) finds that "construction and electricity networks remain the largest sources of copper demand, while EVs are the fastest-growing source of demand", rising from 2% of copper demand in 2024 to 10% in 2050 in its base case. Clean-energy uses took 29% of refined copper demand in 2024. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, pp. 108, 293.
The IEA estimates that data centres could use 250,000 to 550,000 tonnes of copper in 2030, "equating to 1-2% of global copper demand". S&P Global expects demand from artificial intelligence and data centres, and from defence, "to roughly triple by 2040, representing a combined 4 million metric tons of additional demand". Source: IEA Outlook 2025, p. 111; S&P Global, January 8, 2026.
IEA builds demand for each clean energy technology from five variables: deployment by scenario, sub-technology shares, mineral intensity of each sub-technology, intensity improvements, and material efficiency (recycling, reuse and behavioural change). Demand outside the energy sector comes from historical end-use consumption, activity drivers such as gross domestic product (GDP) and industry value added, and material intensities. Intensity improves minimally in STEPS and by around 10% in the longer term in APS and NZE, with specific rates for copper in buildings. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, p. 290.
| IEA copper demand, kt Cu | 2024 | STEPS 2040 | NZE 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity networks | 4,929 | 5,745 | 9,972 |
| Electric vehicles (battery and motor) | 497 | 2,995 | 5,219 |
| Solar PV | 1,657 | 2,230 | 2,570 |
| Other clean energy | 654 | 1,192 | 2,085 |
| Clean energy, subtotal | 7,737 | 12,162 | 19,846 |
| Other uses | 18,980 | 21,975 | 19,634 |
| Total demand | 26,717 | 34,137 | 39,480 |
| Share of clean energy | 29% | 36% | 50% |
Source: IEA Outlook 2025, annex table "Copper demand", p. 293. PV is photovoltaic.
In STEPS, construction and networks stay the largest sources, while EV demand rises "sevenfold from 2% of global copper demand in 2024 to 10% in 2050". Industrial machinery and equipment almost doubles to over 15% of demand. IEA also estimates that around 80 million km of grids need adding or replacing by 2040, roughly the size of today's global grid. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, p. 108; ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 47, citing IEA.
Data centres use 250 to 550 kt in 2030 in IEA's estimate, "equating to 1-2% of global copper demand"; ICSG cites IEA's expectation that data-centre electricity use roughly doubles from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh by 2030. S&P Global expects AI and data-centre demand and defence demand each "to roughly triple by 2040", together 4 million tonnes of additional demand, with data-centre capacity near 550 GW by 2040. IEA's figure covers data centres alone in 2030, and S&P's combines two sectors in 2040; the two do not add. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, p. 111; ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 48; S&P Global, January 8, 2026.
| Forecast | 2024 or 2025 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|
| IEA, Stated Policies (base case), refined copper | 26.7 Mt (2024) | 34.1 Mt |
| IEA, Net Zero Emissions by 2050, refined copper | 26.7 Mt (2024) | 39.5 Mt |
| S&P Global, "Copper in the Age of AI" | about 28 Mt (2025) | 42 Mt |
Sources: IEA Outlook 2025, p. 293; S&P Global, January 8, 2026. S&P's 2025 figure is from Reuters coverage of the report; S&P states 42 Mt is "a 50% increase from current levels".
IEA projects demand on three scenarios from the World Energy Outlook 2024, updated with the Global EV Outlook 2025. STEPS is exploratory and follows "today's policy settings". APS assumes governments meet their national energy and climate targets, including net zero pledges and nationally determined contributions (NDCs), "in full and on time". NZE is normative: it charts a path to net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector by 2050. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, pp. 14, 290.
| Refined copper demand, kt Cu | 2024 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2040 / 2024 | CAGR 2024 to 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEPS | 26,717 | 31,348 | 34,137 | 37,451 | 1.28 | 1.5% |
| APS | 26,717 | 32,620 | 36,740 | 39,641 | 1.38 | 2.0% |
| NZE | 26,717 | 34,416 | 39,480 | 41,277 | 1.48 | 2.5% |
| S&P Global | about 28,000 (2025) | 42,000 | 1.50 |
Sources: IEA Outlook 2025, p. 293 (IEA rows); S&P Global, January 8, 2026 (S&P 2040). Ratios and CAGR are our arithmetic. S&P's 2025 base is from Reuters coverage of the report.
IEA describes STEPS growth from 2024 to 2040 as 30%. Its demand "is based on refined copper and excludes direct use of scrap", so it compares with ICSG's refined usage, not with total use U. S&P's release gives 42 Mt as "a 50% increase from current levels" but does not state whether it counts refined copper alone or includes direct-melt scrap; comparing it with IEA's rows carries that definitional uncertainty. IEA notes that the World Energy Outlook 2025 brings an updated set of scenarios and that its mineral projections will be updated with them. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, pp. 14, 89, 293; S&P Global, January 8, 2026.
S&P Global's study was supported by mining companies including Anglo American, Barrick, BHP, Freeport-McMoRan, Lundin Mining, Rio Tinto, Vale and Taseko Mines, with Google and two commodity traders. S&P states it is "exclusively responsible for the analysis, content and conclusions of the study". Source: S&P Global, January 8, 2026.
Mines produced about 23 Mt of copper in 2025, Chile about 23% of it. Source: USGS 2026, p. 2; ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 10. The IEA finds that on today's pipeline of existing and announced projects, mined supply "peaks around the late 2020s at a little over 24 Mt" and then falls "to less than 19 Mt by 2035 due to a combination of declining ore grades, asset retirements and reserve depletion". It puts the resulting gap at 30% of what mines would need to supply by 2035 in its base case, and over 40% on a net-zero path. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, pp. 108, 110.
The IEA calls these "implied gaps": "if supply proves inadequate, this will push up prices in ways that curtail demand". Its reasons include grade: "the average grade of copper mines has decreased 40% since 1991". Discovery has slowed too: "Of the 239 copper deposits discovered between 1990 and 2023, only 14 have been discovered in the past decade." Source: IEA Outlook 2025, pp. 90, 110.
Canadian mines produced 514,582 tonnes of copper in concentrate in 2024, and British Columbia about 48% of it. Source: NRCan, Copper facts.
Estimates of world mine output agree within rounding: ICSG 22,955 kt (2024) and 23,201 kt (2025, preliminary); USGS 23,000 kt rounded for both years; IEA 22.8 Mt (2024). Chile supplies about 23% (ICSG, 2025) or "a quarter" (IEA, 2024). Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 10, 63; USGS 2026, p. 2; IEA Outlook 2025, p. 108.
IEA projects mined supply S from a project-by-project review in two cases. The base case covers existing assets, projects under construction and projects with permits, financing or offtake secured; the high production case adds projects at a reasonably advanced stage that still seek financing or permits. Neither case includes early-stage or speculative projects, so projections stop at 2040. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, pp. 15, 290, 291.
IEA measures S against a primary supply requirement R, calculated as "total demand net of secondary supply", also allowing for refining losses. It projects secondary supply from the lifetime of each end-use sector and a recycling rate equal to the end-of-life collection rate times the yield rate of the recycling process, and assumes "a certain level of loss ratio" in refining without publishing it. In our notation, with T refined demand, X secondary supply and λ the refining loss ratio:
R = (T − X) / (1 − λ) D = (R − S) / R
We read IEA's percentage deficit as a share of R because its chart compares S with R. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, pp. 107, 291.
| Implied deficit D in 2035 | Base case | High production case |
|---|---|---|
| STEPS | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| APS | 0.35 | |
| NZE | > 0.40 |
Source: IEA Outlook 2025, p. 110. The deficit starts forming in the late 2020s in the base case and slightly later in the high production case.
In STEPS the base-case S peaks at "a little over 24 Mt" in the late 2020s and falls to "less than 19 Mt by 2035". With D = 0.30, R = S / (1 − D) < 19 / 0.70 = 27 Mt, against refined demand of "almost 33 Mt" in 2035 (our arithmetic; IEA does not print R). IEA calls the gaps implied: "if supply proves inadequate, this will push up prices in ways that curtail demand". Source: IEA Outlook 2025, pp. 90, 108, 110.
Grade drives much of the decline. "The average grade of copper mines has decreased 40% since 1991"; IEA attributes this only partly to solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) opening lower-grade deposits, and predominantly to reserve exhaustion. Lower grades, deeper mines, higher stripping ratios and more complex ores raise the material mined and processed per tonne of copper, and with it capital, energy, water and operating needs. Brownfield capital intensity in Latin America has risen 65% since 2020. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, p. 110; ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 21.
Along the sulphide route, flotation concentrate carries about 28% Cu (20% to above 40%), smelter matte 50% to 70%, converter blister 98.5% to 99.5%, and electrorefined cathode over 99.99%. SX-EW gives about 22% of mine production but 18% of refined output in 2025; the denominators differ. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 15, 27.
Lead times are long: greenfield projects take "typically 17 years from discovery to production", and S&P gives the same average. Only 14 of the 239 deposits discovered from 1990 to 2023 were found in the past decade. Geology is not the binding limit: from 2000 to 2025 about 464 Mt was mined while reported reserves grew from 433 Mt to 980 Mt, and reserves have averaged around 40 years of mine production since 1960. ICSG frames the challenge as "less about geological availability than about bringing sufficient copper to market when it is needed." Source: IEA Outlook 2025, p. 110; S&P Global, January 8, 2026; ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 13.
Canadian mines produced 514,582 t of copper in concentrate in 2024; British Columbia's share is 249 kt, or 48.3%. Source: NRCan, Copper facts.
Recycled copper supplied about 11.8 Mt in 2025, 34% of all copper used. This Recycling Input Rate counts copper refined from scrap and scrap melted directly by fabricators. It "remained close to one-third" from 2005 to 2025. Counting refined copper alone, secondary refineries produced 5.3 Mt in 2025, 19% of refined output. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 27, 58, 60.
Recycling indicators answer different questions, and ICSG warns that "no single recycling rate provides a complete picture". UNEP defines them on a life-cycle flow model: a primary metal input; d copper in end-of-life products; e end-of-life copper collected; g recycled end-of-life copper (old scrap); h new scrap from manufacturing; j and m scrap used in fabrication and in production. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 59; UNEP 2011, p. 16.
| Indicator | Formula | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recycling Input Rate, RIR | (secondary refined + Sdm) / U | 11.8 / 34.6 = 0.34 (2025); 33.8% (2005) | ICSG pp. 58 to 60 |
| Recycled content, RC | (j + m) / (a + j + m) | equal to RIR at global level | UNEP p. 16 |
| Collection rate, CR | e / d | 0.55 (10-year average to 2020) | UNEP p. 16; ICSG p. 61 |
| Processing rate, PR | g / e | 0.71 | UNEP p. 16; ICSG p. 61 |
| End-of-life recycling rate, EOL-RR | g / d = CR × PR | 0.55 × 0.71 = 0.39 | UNEP p. 16; ICSG p. 61 |
| Old scrap ratio, OSR | g / (g + h) | 0.50 | UNEP p. 17; ICSG p. 61 |
| End-of-life recycling input rate | old scrap / total input | 0.16 | ICSG p. 61 |
| Overall recycling efficiency rate | new and old scrap collected and prepared / scrap available | 0.55; overall processing rate 0.82 | ICSG pp. 59, 61 |
Values for CR, PR, EOL-RR, OSR and the last two rows come from the ICA and Fraunhofer ISI model of global copper flows as of 2020, as ten-year averages, built on the method of Glöser and others 2013; on that basis RIR = 0.31. The model indicators hang together: RIR × OSR = 0.31 × 0.50 = 0.155, close to the 0.16 end-of-life input rate (our arithmetic).
At the refinery, secondary production is 5.3 Mt of 28.7 Mt refined output, 0.185, which ICSG reports as 19%. Direct-melt scrap then follows as 11.8 − 5.3 ≈ 6.5 Mt, 0.1 Mt from the 6.4 Mt obtained from total use because ICSG's totals are rounded and preliminary. From 2005 to 2025 refinery secondary grows at a CAGR of 4.6% and direct melt at 1.1%; ICSG notes that a stable RIR "does not imply stagnant secondary supply". Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 27, 45, 58, 60.
| Published recycled share | Denominator and year | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 34% | Total use U, 2025 (RIR) | ICSG p. 58 |
| 32% | Global copper consumption, 2023 | NRCan citing ICSG |
| 31% | RIR, model, 10-year average to 2020 | ICSG p. 61 |
| 19% | Refined production, 2025 (secondary refined only) | ICSG p. 27 |
| < 17% | Refined demand excluding direct-use scrap, 2024 | IEA p. 110 |
| about 30% | United States copper supply only, 2025 | USGS p. 1 |
Shares differ mainly by denominator (total use or refined copper), year and geography. Sources: ICSG Factbook 2026; NRCan, Copper facts; IEA Outlook 2025; USGS 2026.
A different measure asks how much copper in discarded products returns to use. Estimates of this end-of-life recycling rate range from about 40% to 53%. A peer-reviewed study put it at 45% on average from 2000 to 2010, and the International Copper Association (ICA) at 40%. Source: UNEP 2011, p. 31; Glöser and others 2013; ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 61; ICA.
| EOL-RR estimate | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 39% | ICA and Fraunhofer ISI model, 10-year average to 2020 | ICSG p. 61 |
| 40% | ICA web page; 56% with pre-consumer scrap added | ICA |
| 43%, 53% | UNEP Table D1, from Goonan (USGS 2010) and Graedel and others (2004) | UNEP p. 31 |
| 45% ± 5% (one standard deviation) | Dynamic global flow model, 2000 to 2010, peer reviewed | Glöser and others 2013 |
| above 50% | UNEP summary list of metals | UNEP p. 9 |
Estimates span 39% to 53%. UNEP's summary places copper above 50% while its own table lists 43% and 53%; later model work (45% and 39%) sits below 50%. EOL-RR counts functional recycling only; copper lost into another metal's cycle, as with copper wire in steel scrap, is non-functional and excluded. Source: UNEP 2011, pp. 9, 16, 31; Glöser and others 2013; ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 61; ICA.
The ICA estimates that two-thirds of all copper produced in the last hundred years is "still in productive use". It states that recycled copper needs "up to 85% less energy" than primary production; this is an industry figure without a cited study. Source: ICA.
Canada recycles copper mainly at smelting and refining plants in Rouyn-Noranda and Montréal, Quebec. Canada supplied 45% of the copper scrap the United States imported from 2021 to 2024. Source: NRCan, Copper facts; USGS 2026, p. 1.
ICA states that two-thirds of the 690 million tonnes of copper produced in the last hundred years is "still in productive use"; an earlier ICA backgrounder gave two-thirds of 550 million tonnes. ICSG's annex sums to about 765 Mt of mine production from 1960 to 2025 (our arithmetic), so ICA's tonnage base is out of date while its two-thirds ratio stands as an industry estimate. ICA's energy figure appears as "85 percent less" on one page and "up to 85%" on another; neither cites a study, and the page uses "up to". Source: ICA; ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 63.
Canadian copper recycling is concentrated at smelting and refining plants in Rouyn-Noranda and Montréal, Quebec. Canada supplied 45% of the copper content of scrap imported by the United States from 2021 to 2024, ahead of Mexico at 43%. Source: NRCan, Copper facts; USGS 2026, p. 1.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) states that "the loop cannot be completely closed for two reasons: (i) demand will continue to increase due to population growth, product innovation, and economic development; (ii) in most applications, copper remains in use for decades." Scrap from buildings, grids and machines comes back only when they are retired, so "recycling can improve resource efficiency and reduce pressure on primary supply, but it cannot fully substitute for mining while copper demand and in-use stocks continue to expand." Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 13, 58.
S&P Global expects recycled copper scrap to more than double, "from 4 million metric tons today to 10 million metric tons by 2040", and still finds a deficit of 10 Mt in 2040, "25% below projected demand". Its scrap figure is far below ICSG's 11.8 Mt; the published release does not define it, so the two likely count different streams. Source: S&P Global, January 8, 2026.
In-use stock K obeys a mass balance (our notation): dK/dt = Fin − Fout, where Fin is copper entering use in products and Fout is copper in products reaching end of life (UNEP's flow d). Old scrap supply is g = EOL-RR × Fout. UNEP states that old-scrap availability is "a function of metal use a product lifetime ago, in-use dissipation over the product lifetime, and the efficiency of the EOL collection and recycling system". While K grows, Fout < Fin, so the share of use met by old scrap stays below EOL-RR. Source: UNEP 2011, pp. 16, 17.
The ICA and Fraunhofer model shows this directly: 39% of copper in discards returns to use, yet old scrap meets only 16% of input. Dividing the two puts end-of-life flow at roughly 0.4 of input to production (our arithmetic). UNEP concludes that "even a very efficient EOL recycling system would not provide enough old scrap for a high recycled content with a high OSR". Copper that is not collected is not simply waiting: some enters landfill, is dissipated, stays in place or sits in hibernating stocks. Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 58, 61; UNEP 2011, p. 17.
ICSG states that "the loop cannot be completely closed" because demand keeps rising and copper "remains in use for decades", and that recycling "cannot fully substitute for mining while copper demand and in-use stocks continue to expand." Source: ICSG Factbook 2026, pp. 13, 58.
Agency outlooks build recycling growth in and still find a primary gap. IEA puts secondary supply at under 17% of refined demand (excluding direct-use scrap) in 2024, down from 18% in 2015, rising to almost 35% by 2050 in STEPS with policy action on collection. S&P's 2040 balance closes as demand 42 Mt = primary supply 22 Mt + recycled scrap 10 Mt + deficit 10 Mt (our arithmetic), with the deficit 10 / 42 = 0.24 of demand, which S&P states as "25% below projected demand". S&P also projects production peaking at 33 Mt in 2030. Source: IEA Outlook 2025, p. 110; S&P Global, January 8, 2026.
Two definitional conflicts limit comparison. S&P measures its deficit against total demand, while IEA measures its against the primary supply requirement R, so 25% and 30% are not like for like. S&P's "4 million metric tons today" of recycled scrap is far below ICSG's 11.8 Mt recycling input and ICA's older 9 Mt; the release does not define it, and we assess that it counts a narrower stream. The full S&P report would settle this but is not public. Source: S&P Global, January 8, 2026; ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 58; ICA.
Surge Copper's Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) expects Berg to yield 4,875 million pounds of copper, and its mill to run for 28 years. Source: PFS, p. 20; PFS, p. 9.
Our assessment. 4,875 million pounds is about 2.2 Mt of copper, or about 80,000 tonnes a year on average over 28 years. That is about 0.3% of world mine output in 2025 (23.2 Mt), and under 1% of the 10 Mt deficit S&P projects for 2040. On these figures Berg would be one of many mines needed to meet forecast demand, not a decisive source. Forecast gaps are "implied", as the IEA notes, and depend on prices, policy and recycling.
Surge Copper's Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) states life-of-mine copper of 4,875 million pounds and a mill life of 28 years. Source: PFS, p. 20; PFS, p. 9.
Our assessment, in notation. Berg total copper Q = 4,875 × 106 lb × 0.45359 kg/lb = 2.21 × 109 kg = 2.21 Mt. Mean yearly output q = Q / 28 years = 79 kt per year; q is a life-of-mine mean, not a forecast for any one year.
| Reference quantity | Value | q / reference |
|---|---|---|
| World mine output 2024, IEA | 22.8 Mt | 0.0035 |
| World mine output 2025, USGS (rounded) | 23.0 Mt | 0.0034 |
| World mine output 2025, ICSG (preliminary) | 23.2 Mt | 0.0034 |
| S&P deficit in 2040 | 10 Mt | 0.0079 |
The comparison holds on a like basis: q and world mine output both count copper contained in mine product. Across all three output estimates Berg is about 0.3% of world mine supply and under 1% of S&P's 2040 deficit, so it would be one of many mines needed, not a decisive source. Both deficits are implied, and move with prices, policy and recycling. Source: PFS, p. 20; PFS, p. 9; IEA Outlook 2025, p. 108; USGS 2026, p. 2; ICSG Factbook 2026, p. 10; S&P Global, January 8, 2026.
Figures were checked against each source on October 22, 2026; working notes list each quotation and page.
Each source has its own vintage and status. ICSG 2025 values are preliminary, including direct-melt scrap and RIR, and ICSG page numbers are PDF pages. IEA PDF and printed pages coincide; its projections rest on World Energy Outlook 2024 scenarios. UNEP page numbers are printed pages, two less than PDF pages. USGS 2025 values are estimates rounded to the nearest 1,000 kt. S&P figures come from its press release, since the full report is not public; its 2025 demand base of about 28 Mt is from Reuters coverage. Ratios, CAGRs and derived tonnages marked "our arithmetic" are ours. Figures were checked against each source on October 22, 2026; working notes list each quotation and page.